Atiku: A consensus like war

Sunday, 28 November 2010 00:00 Sule Lazarus, Onimisi Alao & Hir Joseph


CONCENSUS Preidential aspirant, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar
The emergence of former vice president, Atiku Abubakar, last Tuesday as the chosen presidential aspirant for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) by the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) has changed the political rhythm and permutations in many quarters. The outcome did not douse the scary political atmosphere that pervaded during the breathtaking suspense regarding a consensus presidential aspirant for the PDP from the north.

The supposition that Atiku could be a soft nut to crack was echoed tacitly though by the President Goodluck Jonathan/Sambo campaign organization which reportedly went into jubilation when the Ciroma committee zeroed down on Atiku. However, the Ciroma committee’s decision was said to have shocked other aspirants, including the Jonathan group, whose media campaign was targeted at retired General Ibrahim Babangida.



Also in the other camps, particularly that of Babangida and Governor Saraki, there were disquiet as their supporters claimed they could not come to terms with the outcome of the Ciroma committee’s decision.


WHY JONATHAN’S CAMP JUBILATED OVER ATIKU’S EMERGENCE

Dr Ukeje Nwokeje Nwokeforo, Director of Intelligence and Strategy, Rebuild Nigeria Initiative, told Sunday Trust that Atiku, as President Jonathan’s opponent, makes the job easier.

He explained thus: “The president’s camp is excited because we find suddenly that we have little fight to do. We have someone who can’t give us a fight. God has always worked for Goodluck Jonathan and we see the NPLF’s choice as the latest such act of God. For one, we are talking about someone (Atiku) who has gargantuan contradictions and deficits. And, what is his followership strength? We know Atiku very well. We were with him in the PDM; we’ve known him in the PDP. We know his weight well and that is why we are excited. And because we know him so well, we know how to tackle him every step of the way. Already, we are thinking of setting up a campaign team for the main election. Importantly, we are on our toes as we watch developments. Some reports say his co-aspirants the NPLF edged out will side with him. Let’s see how that one works out because it is doubtful. But, as I have said, we will take Atiku as he comes. The Jonathan camp under the leadership of Senator Sarki Tafida, is stable and working hard and handling issues as they arise.”

Actually, another source in the president’s campaign organization told Sunday Trust in confidence that the camp thought that either Kwara State governor, Bukola Saraki, or retired General Ibrahim Babangida would emerge. According to him, “Governor Saraki would have had the capacity to mobilize other governors to his side. We are not saying all the governors would have joined him, but he would have been able to sway some of them to his side, especially those who are not seeking a second term. Atiku used to be very close to governors, but that was in the past. All those who would have been loyal to Atiku in the PDP are no longer in power, so, he can’t command the kind of respect he enjoyed while he was vice-president.”

Sunday Trust gathered further that in order to assuage governors who had been aggrieved by President Jonathan’s previous actions, the campaign organization has appointed six of them as zonal coordinators. They include Governor Gabriel Suswam (North Central); Governor Ibrahim Shema (North-West); Governor Isa Yuguda (North-East), Governor Gbenga Daniel (South-West), Governor Liyel Imoke (South-South) and Governor Martin Elechi (South-East). Cont’d from page 7


The strategy, according to a member of the Jonathan team, is that these governors will mobilize their own delegates, at least, to vote for Jonathan, while they will persuade the governors in their geopolitical zones to do the same.

Apart from the appointment of the governors as campaign coordinators, the president’s team jubilated because, going by their calculations, there is no northern governor who will be loyal to Atiku. One of them explained thus: “Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa State, is a die-hard Obasanjo man and Obasanjo is with Jonathan. Kano State is not being controlled by Atiku; those in the PDP there are in the president’s camp. All the North-Central governors are with the president. The North-West is under General Muhammadu Buhari’s control; while in the North-East, Governor Murtala Nyako of Adamawa State and Governor Danjuma Goje of Gombe State are not Atiku’s friends.”

The source added that in the near future, all the dossier on alleged corrupt deals of the former Vice-President will be dusted and made bare to the Nigerian people so that they can know better the kind of stuff Atiku is made of.


ATIKU’S CAMP FIRES BACK

However, the Atiku camp is of the view that the jubilation in Jonathan’s camp was self-deceit because Jonathan poses no threat to Atiku. According to Malam Garba Shehu, the Director of Media and Publicity of the Atiku Campaign Organisation, “President Jonathan does not have any political weight in a typical democracy, without the police, without the State Security Service, without the Army and without the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in his pocket, he can’t fly.

He argued that the changes effected in the constitution no longer allow the president to use the state apparatus in an election, hence “he is an absolute light weight. He is beatable and we are going to defeat him in this election.”

Speaking further, he said it was the wisdom of God that guided the people in choosing Atiku, adding that, “we do not say that his choice has diminished other persons in any way. They are great men capable of leading this country. It was just some measure of responsibility that was placed on Atiku’s neck and he is fully conscious of that.”

He maintained that the Atiku camp is overwhelmed by the positive reactions that followed the announcement, adding that, “we had never imagined that we would witness anything on the scale that we have seen.’’

According to him, goodwill messages, calls and text messages have been pouring in from all over the country.

“We are grateful to God because if we had lost, probably we would have been sulking and feeling somehow at our little corner. So, the solidarity has been excellent nationwide, akin to a situation that light has suddenly appeared on the sky heralding a ray of hope for democracy,” he said.

Shehu recalled that, “even before the decision of the Ciroma committee, there were enormous pressure and negative campaigns against the committee. Were it not that Ciroma and his committee members are strong men, they would have probably abandoned the job, following the kind of negative campaigns and attacks against it. But we are really overwhelmed by the kind of goodwill messages and solidarity we have received from Nigerians”

On whether the other aspirants were really with Atiku, he said General Ibrahim Babangida, Governor Bukola Saraki and General Aliyu Gusau had shown a lot of grace in the whole matter, adding that, “they have shown that they are patriots; big in heart and mind and that they have put the interest of the country far above personal interest. They cooperated with the Ciroma process. They supported the committee and have accepted the outcome and have even taken steps further to help the consensus candidate to run a good campaign and win. So, so far so good and we are going smoothly.’’

He revealed that the campaign’s Directors General have been meeting jointly to fashion out a harmonious campaign structure out of the four who had worked separately to get a vibrant and credible one who can win elections.

In the same vein, Mallam Garbadeen Muhammed, the Director of Media and Publicity of the Saraki Campaign Organisation, told Sunday Trust that the Kwara State governor has no grudges over the decision of the consensus committee. According to him, “Governor Saraki has no reason to be bitter. Rather, he is showing that he is a man of integrity, by abiding by the deal. Ten years from now, Saraki will still be younger than Atiku’s age today. So, he is not bitter. He did a lot in Kwara State, which everyone has agreed are good deeds. Talk about agriculture, power, education, etc. He will still be relevant in Nigeria’s politics in another decade or two. Why should he be discontented? He’s cooperating with Atiku all the way.

Though the terms of the deal among the four members of the consensus group have not been made open, the strategies which the Atiku group will adopt are not just few. First, the decision to field a South-Easterner as Vice President is likely to win the heart of the Igbo-speaking people. Again, the current PDP Chairman, Dr Okwesilieze Nwodo, is an associate of Atiku Abubakar, having served as his returning officer during the 2007 presidential elections which Atiku contested under the platform of the Action Congress (AC). Sunday Trust learnt on good authority that about 10 members of the current National Working Committee of the party are die-hard loyalist of Atiku.

In addition to these advantages, it is believed that Atiku may revive the structure of the old Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), which has followers in various parts of the country. It was the movement that produced the late M.K.O Abiola who made an impact in the aborted 1993 presidential election. The structure is part of the current PDP, and, as Atiku has returned to the PDP fold, it may be easier to reinvent the movements to his advantage at this time.


ADAMU CIROMA UNDER FIRE

A veteran politician and founding member of the PDP, Alhaji Isyaku Ibrahim, has declared that the Ciroma committee lackes legitimacy to act for the north. What it did was, at best, an electoral rigging of the people’s opinion.

According to him, “nine persons who arrogated powers to themselves as leaders of the north with no mandate and I don’t know where they derived their authorities from. In the first instance, consensus is undemocratic.

He said the Ciroma committee merely arrogated powers to themselves, claiming that they are Northern leaders working for consensus, yet the nine persons could not agree and had to put their decision to vote.

“If we go by consensus, the word ‘voting’ could not have arisen. The implication is that the nine people could not even agree or did not have the courage to pick one person.

Who nominated them? Who gave them the mandate? Could the aspirants have possibly given them the mandate to do that without minding the implications of their action on democracy?”

“For them to have the mandate of the north, we have 19 northern states, they should have called for nominations of persons from each state.”
He recalled that, “we did it in 1978 when we formed the NPN. At that time, we had 10 northern states and I was the leader of my state of five delegates. The NPN’s arrangement was under the leadership of the late Aliyu Makama Bida, a minister of finance under northern Nigeria and Umaru Dikko, a deputy national secretary, was acting as national secretary that time.

I had Shehu Shagari in mine and I pleaded with other delegates to support him and they obliged. So we went to Murtala square, Kaduna, and we had to vote.

“From Kano, they had three presidential aspirants. They had Maitama Sule, Inuwa Wada and Dr A. T. Ahmed. In Borno State, they had Adamu Ciroma. In Gongola, we had only one name, Professor Iya Abubakar, Sokoto produced only Shehu Shagari. From Kwara, we had only Olusola Saraki and from Benue, they produced the late JS Tarka. So, we had to go into election to get the first three with highest numbers.

That is why I am surprised that Adamu Ciroma, who was an aspirant then, could come up with a few people and say they are the leaders of the north, producing a PDP presidential aspirant on behalf of the north.

Also, Dr Nwokeforo hit ciroma committee “Who set up the NPLF? We know of Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) when you are talking of the North. Something about NPLF strikes doubtful notes. They said they were 17 wise men. They contracted eventually to nine. How would even 13 people unsystematically constituted, represent the North? Now, the word consensus, as used by them, is inappropriate. You don’t vote to achieve a consensus. It is the aspirants themselves who should have reached a compromise and chosen from among themselves, acting on their own. You build consensus, you don’t elect it.

Similarly, the PDP leadership and the vice president, Namadi Sambo, in their separate reactions disowned the committee and the consensus candidate as they said they would not reckon with the exercise carried out by the committee.

Sambo said the northern part of the country has not produced any consensus candidate for the 2011 presidential election.

He made the remark to newsmen at the Presidential Wing of the Murtala Muhammed Airport in reaction to the selection of Atiku as the PDP consensus candidate by a group of northern leaders.

“Who said there is a consensus candidate for the north? Who said so because we are not aware of any northern consensus candidate?

“Our understanding differs and the north has no consensus candidate for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

“The PDP has constitutional avenues; we have our constitution on how we select our candidates for our different positions for election,” Sambo said.


THE BATTLE AHEAD

Coordinator of the Atiku Campaign Organisation in Nasarawa State, Alhaji Audu Igbo, said Atiku’s chances are perfect. He said Atiku campaign organization will rely on his records, his fight against third term and other proven abilities of the candidate to root for him in Nasarawa.

Besides, Atiku will rely on the new alliance that will bring on board the IBB campaign organization, that of General Gusau and Bukola Saraki to join forces against that of Jonathan/Sambo. As a seasoned politician, Atiku will rely on his existing political structures in the PDP and among the governors, particularly he will rely on Saraki to get the support of the governors.

Atiku will also hide on the weight of the politicians behind the Northern candidacy. They have taken positions to fight for the northern presidency, hence, come what, they will stand by Atiku.

They are in the Senate, House of Representatives, the state legislatures, the executive as commissioners, and in the party as party chieftains.

Mr Philip Jwan, Director of Research & Strategy, Goodluck Solidarity Movement (GSM) has this to say: “At this stage, we are facing the delegates’ election because the immediate task is to see our principal get elected as the presidential flag bearer of the PDP. We are busy working. We are not leaving anything to chance. Our work is easy because President Goodluck Jonathan has earned the election he seeks. We are reminding Nigerians that here is a man who promises ‘one man one vote’ and has taken steps towards it, beginning with the appointment of Professor Attahiru Jega

Also, John David Dungs, a Plateau State-born retired colonel, who served as the military administrator of Delta State from August 1996 to August 1998, told Sunday Trust that he is convinced that Jonathan will be an easy sell because, ‘he is best placed’ to make the country great. “Jonathan can serve the interest of the North better than any northerner currently seeking to be Nigeria’s president,”

The governors are also going to be of great help to Jonathan, particularly as all his zonal coordinators are serving governors.

It was gathered r that President Jonathan may support the National Assembly members who want to become members of the NEC of the PDP. With this, Jonathan’s strategists hope to break Atiku’s stronghold on the legislature. Many members of the National Assembly are believed to be staunch supporters of the former Vice President.

Furthermore, President Jonathan, reacting to allegations that his regime has not delivered the goods since May when he became commander-in-chief, has instructed his ministers to begin to enlighten Nigerians on the major achievements in their ministries. At least, the Ministers of Education, Health, Niger Delta and Information and Communication kick-started this new campaign strategy when they met with senior journalists in Abuja last week. The drive will take them to Lagos, and major media campaigns are being expected in this respect.

Part of the president’s strategies is to tackle the Niger Delta resurgence, by ending the militancy and executing far-reaching projects, as a way of convincing the people that he did not abandon the amnesty project which the late President Umaru Musa Yar’adua started.

From all indications, the two camps are prepared for a game of wits to convince Nigerians to trust them.

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